Nonlinear dynamical method of projecting the transmission of an epidemic is accurate if the input parameters and initial value variables are reliable. Here, such a model is proposed for predicting an epidemic. A method to supplement two variables and two parameters for this proposed model is demonstrated through a robust statistical approach. The method described here worked well in case of three continuous distributions. Model predictions could be lower estimates due to under-reporting of disease cases. An ad hoc procedure with a technical note is provided in the appendix.
|Original language||English (US)|
|Number of pages||9|
|Journal||Sadhana - Academy Proceedings in Engineering Sciences|
|Publication status||Published - Dec 1 2004|
- Dynamical model
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