A combination of differential equations and convolution in understanding the spread of an epidemic

Arni S.R. Srinivasa Rao, Masayuki Kakehashi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Scopus citations


Nonlinear dynamical method of projecting the transmission of an epidemic is accurate if the input parameters and initial value variables are reliable. Here, such a model is proposed for predicting an epidemic. A method to supplement two variables and two parameters for this proposed model is demonstrated through a robust statistical approach. The method described here worked well in case of three continuous distributions. Model predictions could be lower estimates due to under-reporting of disease cases. An ad hoc procedure with a technical note is provided in the appendix.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)305-313
Number of pages9
JournalSadhana - Academy Proceedings in Engineering Sciences
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - Dec 1 2004
Externally publishedYes



  • Convolution
  • Dynamical model
  • HIV
  • Likelihood

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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