Bayesian comparative assessment of diagnostic accuracy of low-dose CT scan and ultrasonography in the diagnosis of urolithiasis after the application of the STONE score

Laila Cochon, Jeffrey Smith, Amado Alejandro Baez

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

Objective: The objective of our study was to assess the diagnostic quality of low-dose computed tomography (CT) when compared to ultrasound (US) in diagnosis of urolithiasis using STONE score as a predictor of pre-test probability and the Bayesian statistical model to calculate post-test probabilities (POST) for both diagnostic tests. Methods: STONE score was used to form risk groups to obtain pre-test probabilities. Likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated from external data for low-dose CT and US. POST were obtained using pre-test probabilities and likelihood ratios with Bayesian nomogram. Absolute (ADG) and relative (RDG) gains in diagnostic value were calculated. Results: Calculated +LR for US was 12 and −LR was 0.32; for CT, +LR was 19 and −LR 0.04. +LR and low STONE for US yielded POST 57% and RDG 470%; intermediate STONE POST 92% and RDG 84%; and high STONE POST 99% and RDG 10%. −LR and low STONE for US POST 3% and RDG −70%; intermediate POST 24% and RDG −52%; and high STONE POST 74% and RDG −17.7%. +LR and low STONE for CT POST 68% and RDG 580%; moderate STONE POST 95% and RDG 90%; and high STONE POST 99% and RDG 10%. −LR and low STONE for CT POST 0% and RDG −100%; intermediate POST 4% and RDG −92%; and high STONE POST 26% and RDG −71.1%. ANOVA calculations comparing CT vs US for +LR showed no statistical significance (P value = 0.9893; LR− P value = 0.5488). Conclusion: Bayesian statistical analysis demonstrated slight superiority of CT scan over US on STONE score low- and moderate-risk stratified subtypes, whereas no significant advantage was seen when evaluating high-probability patients.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)177-182
Number of pages6
JournalEmergency Radiology
Volume24
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 1 2017
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Bayesian analysis
  • Low-dose CT
  • Ultrasound
  • Urolithiasis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Emergency Medicine
  • Radiology Nuclear Medicine and imaging

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