China's fiscal stimulus package for the current international crisis: What does 1996-2006 tell us?

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Abstract

This paper uses Bi-Directional Reiterative Truncated Projected Least Squares (BD-RTPLS) to estimate annual ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G multipliers for China's 31 provinces between 1996 and 2006 (GPP = Gross Provincial Product and G = government spending in the province). In order to account for the influence of omitted variables, BD-RTPLS produces a separate ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G estimate for every observation in the data set. I find that ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G were highest in 1996 while China was drastically cutting government spending to curb inflation, were lowest in 1997 during the Asian Financial Crisis, slowly rose between 1998 and 2004, and then declined some in 2005 and 2006 when the Chinese yuan was slowly appreciating.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1-24
Number of pages24
JournalFrontiers of Economics in China
Volume5
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 1 2010

Fingerprint

China
Least squares
Fiscal stimulus
Government spending
Asian financial crisis
Multiplier
Omitted variables
Inflation

Keywords

  • China
  • Crises
  • Fiscal policy
  • Stimulus

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics

Cite this

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title = "China's fiscal stimulus package for the current international crisis: What does 1996-2006 tell us?",
abstract = "This paper uses Bi-Directional Reiterative Truncated Projected Least Squares (BD-RTPLS) to estimate annual ∂GPP/∂G and {\%}∂GPP/{\%}∂G multipliers for China's 31 provinces between 1996 and 2006 (GPP = Gross Provincial Product and G = government spending in the province). In order to account for the influence of omitted variables, BD-RTPLS produces a separate ∂GPP/∂G and {\%}∂GPP/{\%}∂G estimate for every observation in the data set. I find that ∂GPP/∂G and {\%}∂GPP/{\%}∂G were highest in 1996 while China was drastically cutting government spending to curb inflation, were lowest in 1997 during the Asian Financial Crisis, slowly rose between 1998 and 2004, and then declined some in 2005 and 2006 when the Chinese yuan was slowly appreciating.",
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N2 - This paper uses Bi-Directional Reiterative Truncated Projected Least Squares (BD-RTPLS) to estimate annual ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G multipliers for China's 31 provinces between 1996 and 2006 (GPP = Gross Provincial Product and G = government spending in the province). In order to account for the influence of omitted variables, BD-RTPLS produces a separate ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G estimate for every observation in the data set. I find that ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G were highest in 1996 while China was drastically cutting government spending to curb inflation, were lowest in 1997 during the Asian Financial Crisis, slowly rose between 1998 and 2004, and then declined some in 2005 and 2006 when the Chinese yuan was slowly appreciating.

AB - This paper uses Bi-Directional Reiterative Truncated Projected Least Squares (BD-RTPLS) to estimate annual ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G multipliers for China's 31 provinces between 1996 and 2006 (GPP = Gross Provincial Product and G = government spending in the province). In order to account for the influence of omitted variables, BD-RTPLS produces a separate ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G estimate for every observation in the data set. I find that ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G were highest in 1996 while China was drastically cutting government spending to curb inflation, were lowest in 1997 during the Asian Financial Crisis, slowly rose between 1998 and 2004, and then declined some in 2005 and 2006 when the Chinese yuan was slowly appreciating.

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