TY - JOUR
T1 - Development and validation of an individualized nomogram for predicting pancreatic adenocarcinoma-specific survival
T2 - A SEER population analysis of 5,805 patients
AU - Liu, J. H.
AU - Wang, S. F.
AU - Li, B. R.
AU - Zhu, X.
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported partly by Guangdong Science and Technology Department (2016B030309002 and 2019B090905011); Guangdong Province Natural Science Foundation (2018A030310155); the Fund of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhanjiang) (ZJW-2019-007); the Science and Technology Program of Zhanjiang (2017A06012); and The Public Service Platform of South China Sea for R&D Marine Biomedicine Resources (GDMUK201808).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Verduci Editore s.r.l. All rights reserved.
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - OBJECTIVE: A model to predict the overall survival (OS) of pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PAC) is required in consideration of its inferior prognosis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer between 1975 and 2016 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used as raw data. A training cohort and a verification cohort were used for internal validation and external validation, respectively. The nomogram model was constructed to predict the OS. RESULTS: A total of 5,805 patients with PAC from 2010-2015 were analyzed. Most patients were over 65 years old (61.8%), white (81.2%), in stage IIA, IIB (49.0%), and IV (32.4%), less than 50 mm in diameter (80.2%). PAC patients with wide involvement range, no metastasis, and infiltration range more than 300 accounted for 58.2%, 67.6%, 78.2%, respectively. The vast majority of the PAC patients (90.9%) did not receive primary site surgery. Most of the PAC patients (68.1%) received chemotherapy and only 25.8% of PAC patients received radiotherapy. The overall mean survival time, overall median survival time and overall survival rate were 15.1 months, 10.0 months, and 16.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our nomogram that based on age, chemotherapy, grade, Radiation sequence with surgery, Radiation recode, RX Summ-Surg Prim at Site (surgery that removes and/or destroys primary tumor performed as part of the first course of therapy), size, and stage was of well prediction ability.
AB - OBJECTIVE: A model to predict the overall survival (OS) of pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PAC) is required in consideration of its inferior prognosis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer between 1975 and 2016 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used as raw data. A training cohort and a verification cohort were used for internal validation and external validation, respectively. The nomogram model was constructed to predict the OS. RESULTS: A total of 5,805 patients with PAC from 2010-2015 were analyzed. Most patients were over 65 years old (61.8%), white (81.2%), in stage IIA, IIB (49.0%), and IV (32.4%), less than 50 mm in diameter (80.2%). PAC patients with wide involvement range, no metastasis, and infiltration range more than 300 accounted for 58.2%, 67.6%, 78.2%, respectively. The vast majority of the PAC patients (90.9%) did not receive primary site surgery. Most of the PAC patients (68.1%) received chemotherapy and only 25.8% of PAC patients received radiotherapy. The overall mean survival time, overall median survival time and overall survival rate were 15.1 months, 10.0 months, and 16.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our nomogram that based on age, chemotherapy, grade, Radiation sequence with surgery, Radiation recode, RX Summ-Surg Prim at Site (surgery that removes and/or destroys primary tumor performed as part of the first course of therapy), size, and stage was of well prediction ability.
KW - Nomogram
KW - Overall survival
KW - Pancreatic adenocarcinoma
KW - Prognostic factors
KW - SEER
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U2 - 10.26355/eurrev_202010_23401
DO - 10.26355/eurrev_202010_23401
M3 - Article
C2 - 33155204
AN - SCOPUS:85095725983
SN - 1128-3602
VL - 24
SP - 10483
EP - 10495
JO - European Review for Medical and Pharmacological Sciences
JF - European Review for Medical and Pharmacological Sciences
IS - 20
ER -