Influencing HIV/AIDS policy in India through mathematical modelling

Arni S R Rao, Philip K. Maini

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Abstract

The third phase of the National AIDS Control Programme in India (NACP III) was launched in July 2007. To help the planning team set appropriate targets, we were asked to predict the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) under different intervention protocols. Using a dynamical systems approach to model the time evolution of disease, we predicted that if 50% of the targets in NACP III were reached, then there would be 2.08 million PLHIV by 2011. This prediction was published in 2009 and compared very well with the 2.089 million PLHIV estimated by the Indian government at the end of 2011. This success ofmathematical modelling encouraged the Indian government to integrate mathematical modelling into their decision making process.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationUK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics
PublisherSpringer International Publishing
Pages257-261
Number of pages5
ISBN (Electronic)9783319254548
ISBN (Print)9783319254524
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2016

Fingerprint

India
Mathematical Modeling
Target
Dynamical system
Decision Making
Integrate
Planning
Predict
Prediction
Modeling
Policy
Government
Model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Mathematics(all)

Cite this

Rao, A. S. R., & Maini, P. K. (2016). Influencing HIV/AIDS policy in India through mathematical modelling. In UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics (pp. 257-261). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25454-8_33

Influencing HIV/AIDS policy in India through mathematical modelling. / Rao, Arni S R; Maini, Philip K.

UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics. Springer International Publishing, 2016. p. 257-261.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Rao, ASR & Maini, PK 2016, Influencing HIV/AIDS policy in India through mathematical modelling. in UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics. Springer International Publishing, pp. 257-261. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25454-8_33
Rao ASR, Maini PK. Influencing HIV/AIDS policy in India through mathematical modelling. In UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics. Springer International Publishing. 2016. p. 257-261 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25454-8_33
Rao, Arni S R ; Maini, Philip K. / Influencing HIV/AIDS policy in India through mathematical modelling. UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics. Springer International Publishing, 2016. pp. 257-261
@inbook{e0fbd6b730ed4c6a90ae3ede4070e764,
title = "Influencing HIV/AIDS policy in India through mathematical modelling",
abstract = "The third phase of the National AIDS Control Programme in India (NACP III) was launched in July 2007. To help the planning team set appropriate targets, we were asked to predict the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) under different intervention protocols. Using a dynamical systems approach to model the time evolution of disease, we predicted that if 50{\%} of the targets in NACP III were reached, then there would be 2.08 million PLHIV by 2011. This prediction was published in 2009 and compared very well with the 2.089 million PLHIV estimated by the Indian government at the end of 2011. This success ofmathematical modelling encouraged the Indian government to integrate mathematical modelling into their decision making process.",
author = "Rao, {Arni S R} and Maini, {Philip K.}",
year = "2016",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1007/978-3-319-25454-8_33",
language = "English (US)",
isbn = "9783319254524",
pages = "257--261",
booktitle = "UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics",
publisher = "Springer International Publishing",

}

TY - CHAP

T1 - Influencing HIV/AIDS policy in India through mathematical modelling

AU - Rao, Arni S R

AU - Maini, Philip K.

PY - 2016/1/1

Y1 - 2016/1/1

N2 - The third phase of the National AIDS Control Programme in India (NACP III) was launched in July 2007. To help the planning team set appropriate targets, we were asked to predict the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) under different intervention protocols. Using a dynamical systems approach to model the time evolution of disease, we predicted that if 50% of the targets in NACP III were reached, then there would be 2.08 million PLHIV by 2011. This prediction was published in 2009 and compared very well with the 2.089 million PLHIV estimated by the Indian government at the end of 2011. This success ofmathematical modelling encouraged the Indian government to integrate mathematical modelling into their decision making process.

AB - The third phase of the National AIDS Control Programme in India (NACP III) was launched in July 2007. To help the planning team set appropriate targets, we were asked to predict the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) under different intervention protocols. Using a dynamical systems approach to model the time evolution of disease, we predicted that if 50% of the targets in NACP III were reached, then there would be 2.08 million PLHIV by 2011. This prediction was published in 2009 and compared very well with the 2.089 million PLHIV estimated by the Indian government at the end of 2011. This success ofmathematical modelling encouraged the Indian government to integrate mathematical modelling into their decision making process.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85017061276&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85017061276&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/978-3-319-25454-8_33

DO - 10.1007/978-3-319-25454-8_33

M3 - Chapter

SN - 9783319254524

SP - 257

EP - 261

BT - UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics

PB - Springer International Publishing

ER -