Prediction of post-ERCP related pancreatitis

G. M. Eisen, P. Jowell, M. S. Branch, John Paul Affronti, P. B. Cotton, J. Baillie

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

INTRODUCTION: The etiology of post ERCP pancreatitis is unknown, although numerous associations have been postulated. Identification of specific risk factors may lead to insights in etiology and prevention of this common complications. METHODS: Data on 6,071 consecutive ERCPs were entered into the Duke GI-Trac database. Complications were reported as part of a QA exercise. Candidate predictor variables evaluated were: age, gender, hepatobiliary/ pancreatic (HPB) neoplasm, pancreatogram obtained pancreas divisum, presence of pseudocyst, bile duct stones, sphincterotomy, prior post-ERCP pancreatitis, manometry, bile duct size. All pts with active pancreatitis were excluded. A predictive model was generated utilizing the stepwise logistic regression technique. RESULTS: 201 pts (3%) developed pancreatitis. Univariate analysis showed that cancer, bile duct size, prior ERCP pancreatitis and pseudocyst were all p>.05 and thus not entered into a predictive model. The remaining 7 variables were entered into a stepwise logistic regression model. All independent variables were dichotomous except age which was continuous. All 7 variables remained in the final model. Interactions were >.20. Odds ratios were: manometry 3.48 pancreas divisum 2.89 pancreatogram 2.85 gender (female) 1.79 stones sphincterotomy 2.07 (any vs. none) 0.41 age 0.98 The overall χ2 for the model = 38.6 (p<.0002) CONCLUSIONS: 1) We identified 7 risk factors for post ERCP related pancreatitis. 2) The risk decreases with age (ie, a 30 yr old has 2.7 times the risk of an 80 yr old). 3) The presence of bile duct stones appears protective. 4) Identification of preprocedure risk factors may lead to more accurate informed consent. 5) These data can be used to develop algorithms of HBP disorder risk/benefit.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Number of pages1
JournalGastrointestinal Endoscopy
Volume43
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 1996

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Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography
Pancreatitis
Bile Ducts
Logistic Models
Manometry
Pancreas
Bile Duct Neoplasms
Informed Consent
Pancreatic Neoplasms
Odds Ratio
Databases

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Radiology Nuclear Medicine and imaging
  • Gastroenterology

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Eisen, G. M., Jowell, P., Branch, M. S., Affronti, J. P., Cotton, P. B., & Baillie, J. (1996). Prediction of post-ERCP related pancreatitis. Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, 43(4). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-5107(96)80455-X

Prediction of post-ERCP related pancreatitis. / Eisen, G. M.; Jowell, P.; Branch, M. S.; Affronti, John Paul; Cotton, P. B.; Baillie, J.

In: Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, Vol. 43, No. 4, 01.01.1996.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Eisen, GM, Jowell, P, Branch, MS, Affronti, JP, Cotton, PB & Baillie, J 1996, 'Prediction of post-ERCP related pancreatitis', Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, vol. 43, no. 4. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-5107(96)80455-X
Eisen GM, Jowell P, Branch MS, Affronti JP, Cotton PB, Baillie J. Prediction of post-ERCP related pancreatitis. Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. 1996 Jan 1;43(4). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-5107(96)80455-X
Eisen, G. M. ; Jowell, P. ; Branch, M. S. ; Affronti, John Paul ; Cotton, P. B. ; Baillie, J. / Prediction of post-ERCP related pancreatitis. In: Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. 1996 ; Vol. 43, No. 4.
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