TY - JOUR
T1 - Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on critical healthcare capacity
AU - Cuadros, Diego F.
AU - Xiao, Yanyu
AU - Mukandavire, Zindoga
AU - Correa-Agudelo, Esteban
AU - Hernández, Andrés
AU - Kim, Hana
AU - MacKinnon, Neil J.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Authors
PY - 2020/7
Y1 - 2020/7
N2 - The role of geospatial disparities in the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic is poorly understood. We developed a spatially-explicit mathematical model to simulate transmission dynamics of COVID-19 disease infection in relation with the uneven distribution of the healthcare capacity in Ohio, U.S. The results showed substantial spatial variation in the spread of the disease, with localized areas showing marked differences in disease attack rates. Higher COVID-19 attack rates experienced in some highly connected and urbanized areas (274 cases per 100,000 people) could substantially impact the critical health care response of these areas regardless of their potentially high healthcare capacity compared to more rural and less connected counterparts (85 cases per 100,000). Accounting for the spatially uneven disease diffusion linked to the geographical distribution of the critical care resources is essential in designing effective prevention and control programmes aimed at reducing the impact of COVID-19 pandemic.
AB - The role of geospatial disparities in the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic is poorly understood. We developed a spatially-explicit mathematical model to simulate transmission dynamics of COVID-19 disease infection in relation with the uneven distribution of the healthcare capacity in Ohio, U.S. The results showed substantial spatial variation in the spread of the disease, with localized areas showing marked differences in disease attack rates. Higher COVID-19 attack rates experienced in some highly connected and urbanized areas (274 cases per 100,000 people) could substantially impact the critical health care response of these areas regardless of their potentially high healthcare capacity compared to more rural and less connected counterparts (85 cases per 100,000). Accounting for the spatially uneven disease diffusion linked to the geographical distribution of the critical care resources is essential in designing effective prevention and control programmes aimed at reducing the impact of COVID-19 pandemic.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Critical healthcare capacity
KW - Spatial epidemiology
KW - Spatially-explicit mathematical model
KW - Transport connectivity
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U2 - 10.1016/j.healthplace.2020.102404
DO - 10.1016/j.healthplace.2020.102404
M3 - Article
C2 - 32736312
AN - SCOPUS:85088644791
SN - 1353-8292
VL - 64
JO - Health and Place
JF - Health and Place
M1 - 102404
ER -