The effect of risk-taking behaviour in epidemic models

L. Sega, D. Maxin, L. Eaton, A. Latham, A. Moose, S. Stenslie

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

We study an epidemic model that incorporates risk-taking behaviour as a response to a perceived low prevalence of infection that follows from the administration of an effective treatment or vaccine. We assume that knowledge about the number of infected, recovered and vaccinated individuals has an effect in the contact rate between susceptible and infectious individuals. We show that, whenever optimism prevails in the risk behaviour response, the fate of an epidemic may change from disease clearance to disease persistence. Moreover, under certain conditions on the parameters, increasing the efficiency of vaccine and/or treatment has the unwanted effect of increasing the epidemic reproductive number, suggesting a wider range of diseases may become endemic due to risk-taking alone. These results indicate that the manner in which treatment/vaccine effectiveness is advertised can have an important influence on how the epidemic unfolds.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)229-246
Number of pages18
JournalJournal of biological dynamics
Volume9
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2015

Keywords

  • 92D30
  • recovery
  • risk-taking behaviour
  • treatment
  • vaccination

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Ecology

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