Analysis of time-varying turbulence in geographically-dispersed wind energy markets

B. T. Ewing, J. B. Kruse, M. A. Thompson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

13 Scopus citations

Abstract

Understanding the time series dynamics of wind speed is of importance to effective wind energy plant operations and businesses exposed to wind-related risk. This article examines the mean wind speed and wind turbulence using an ARMA-GARCH-in-mean framework for different wind energy markets. The methodology allows wind turbulence (i.e., conditional variance) to depend on the size of past wind gusts (i.e., shocks) in the series. The results have several implications for wind energy production. Our findings are summarized as follows: Mean wind speeds measured at different regional locations exhibit persistence and are highly dependent on immediate past wind speed values as well as past surprises in wind speed. However, there are differences in the relationship between wind turbulence and the mean wind speed across the different locations.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)340-347
Number of pages8
JournalEnergy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning and Policy
Volume3
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 1 2008

Keywords

  • GARCH-in-mean
  • Time-varying
  • Wind speed
  • Wind turbulence

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Chemical Engineering(all)
  • Fuel Technology
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology

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