TY - JOUR
T1 - Prediction of adult cardiovascular multifactorial risk status from childhood risk factor levels
T2 - The bogalusa heart study
AU - Myers, Leann
AU - Coughlin, Steven S.
AU - Webber, Larry S.
AU - Srinivasan, Sathanur R.
AU - Berenson, Gerald S.
N1 - Funding Information:
Supported by funds from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the US Public Health Service, Early Natural History of Arteriosclerosis grant 5R01 HL38844.
PY - 1995/11/1
Y1 - 1995/11/1
N2 - There is increasing interest in identifying children at risk for later development of cardiovascular disease. The authors studied 1,457 children who were first examined as part of the Bogalusa Heart Study in 1973 and again 15 years later as young adults. Age-, race-, and sex-specific quartiles were defined for each of three risk factor variables-ponderal index (weight/height3), systolic blood pressure, and cholesterol-for both the child and adult measures. Adults were classified as clustered if they were in the top quartile for each of the variables. Clustered adults had higher levels of several risk factor variables, in addition to the criteria variables, than did nonclustered individuals. Of children who placed in the top quartile on three factors, 21.8% were clustered as adults. Only 1.1% of those with no risk factor levels in the top quartile were clustered as adults (P < 0.0001). Logistic regression was used to predict adult cluster status from childhood variable levels. All three factors were significant predictors, with blood pressure being the most powerful. This well-fitting model is easily interpretable in terms of standard deviations and can be a useful model for identifying at-risk children.
AB - There is increasing interest in identifying children at risk for later development of cardiovascular disease. The authors studied 1,457 children who were first examined as part of the Bogalusa Heart Study in 1973 and again 15 years later as young adults. Age-, race-, and sex-specific quartiles were defined for each of three risk factor variables-ponderal index (weight/height3), systolic blood pressure, and cholesterol-for both the child and adult measures. Adults were classified as clustered if they were in the top quartile for each of the variables. Clustered adults had higher levels of several risk factor variables, in addition to the criteria variables, than did nonclustered individuals. Of children who placed in the top quartile on three factors, 21.8% were clustered as adults. Only 1.1% of those with no risk factor levels in the top quartile were clustered as adults (P < 0.0001). Logistic regression was used to predict adult cluster status from childhood variable levels. All three factors were significant predictors, with blood pressure being the most powerful. This well-fitting model is easily interpretable in terms of standard deviations and can be a useful model for identifying at-risk children.
KW - Blood pressure
KW - Cardiovascular diseases
KW - Cholesterol
KW - Logistic models
KW - Longitudinal studies
KW - Obesity
KW - Risk factors
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U2 - 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a117739
DO - 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a117739
M3 - Article
C2 - 7572972
AN - SCOPUS:0028892356
SN - 0002-9262
VL - 142
SP - 918
EP - 924
JO - American journal of epidemiology
JF - American journal of epidemiology
IS - 9
ER -